For the M1 thing I don’t blame them, personally. The definition of a ā€œsavings accountā€ (excluded from M1) was an account that earned interest and had limited withdrawals. People’s savings accounts, prior to 2020, met this requirement. After 5 or 6 withdrawals in a month, you had to pay a penalty.

In May of 2020, the Fed declared that people could make unlimited withdrawals from savings without penalty. With that rule change, suddenly everyone’s ā€œsavingsā€ accounts counted in M1, causing that metric to go vertical.

In response, the Fed created an updated M1 metric which dropped the limited withdrawal requirement. The reason I don’t blame them is that the limited withdrawal requirement worked fine as an M1/M2 discriminator until it suddenly didn’t.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t like the Fed. I’m in favor of abolishing the Fed entirely. I just don’t blame them for the M1/M2 discontinuity in May of 2020, specifically. It could have been handled better, but I don’t think it was an intentional deception.

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