Rates and the Dollar are major headwinds for bitcoin. A 2nd surge in inflation would be bad in the short-term.
Just check out what 2-year yields have done since Nov., 2021 while bitcoin has been going down.
Discussion
Cash gets more expensive, ofcourse it puts pressure on assets. Thing is, how long van they keep it up and how long can they try n push bitcoin down?
Worst case scenario AFAICT would be they raise FFR even higher to 6-7% and keep it there for a year. Ends catastrophically, of course, at which point they cut to zero and try to resuscitate the victim (dead economy). I have a bearish hard-money advocate friend who thinks BTC could drop to 1-3K again in that scenario. Me? I could see 10K again, lowest... But after that? Watch out! 🚀