Isn’t their latest estimate there the dashed green line? Shouldn’t it get more accurate as more data comes in? Their latest estimate looks more like -1.3%
Discussion
That's the annualized figure. If this quarter were to repeat four times, basically.
And most of the time over the past 2 months the dotted line was fluctuating slightly above or below zero.
The -0.3% reported today IS the annualized figure so you can't just repeat it 4 times. However, point taken regarding the noise in their model. The entire decrease in real GDP is due to front-loading of imports related to the Trump tariffs. I wonder if the GDPNow alarmists will report their initial 2025 Q2 estimate. Because it says 2.4%. That doesn't make for shocking news so probably won't see much on that. Not taking a shot at you, just pointing out that this GDP number appears to be an anomaly and nobody is really talking about that