Isn't the IMF + El Salvador stuff all self inflicted, can't they just not take out loans
Discussion
I had the same thought. Taking out IMF loan can have a good short term effect. But usually it doesn’t work very well over the long term. That’s before Bitcoin era thou. Bukele might be able to leverage the loans and acquire BTC. Same as what Saylor is doing but Bukele can do on nation based level.
It's going to be more complicated than leveraging the loans to buy more BTC, because under the IMF program they're not supposed to accumulate any more BTC. They're obviously still accumulating BTC at the moment, so I'm not clear on when they would begin abiding by that requirement.
My take as someone who lives there: he has been super popular and wants to continue being so. With the security question resolved, he has promised to make the country less poor, and the people are getting impatient for results. Tourism is up quite a lot, but that doesn't cut it. This will never be a massive tourism destination imo. He has a lot of other plans, but they are either very long term, or just pie in the sky. He wants big investments that pay off. But that is very hard, as it turns out.
This suggests they are actually quite broke: https://xcancel.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1896958450175000955
Interesting details. Obviously can't verify it but in line with what I know, I guess.
The craziest thing about the country that I know, is how much they import food. Vegetables from Guatemala, meat from Nicaragua. Food is not really cheap. People subsist on beans, and a lot of what is consumed is bad quality processed food.
The CIA would like a word.
Check out the book confessions of an economic hitman. Fictionalized but true, you know details changed but the lesson is factual. I'm honestly surprised Bukele made it this far given the history of IMF loans. The loans will not help his country.
All bitcoiners should read that book. Perkins is a leftie but that book was eye opening for me. Coupled with Legacy of Ashes. Solid red pills.
Probably got an offer they couldn’t refuse
Probably smart to take out loans for a bit just to maximize that revenue source. He could always go back to bitcoin Maximalism in a year or two.
Here’s my take: El Salvador’s $1.4 billion IMF loan is a quick fix for a country slammed with debt and interest payments, and it looks like Bukele’s been forced into it.
He seems to grasp Bitcoin’s value, seeing it as the way to save the country long term. The IMF (predictably), wants it scrapped as legal tender and to hinder bitcoin adoption as much as possible. On paper he might be complying but his posts and actions show a different story, at least so far.
This feels like a high-risk, high-return bet. Taking the loan to patch up short-term problems while quietly betting big on Bitcoin to pay it all back down the line. Time will tell...