Historical Fourth Turnings: When the Old Order Breaks

In the Strauss-Howe generational theory, a “Fourth Turning” is a period of deep crisis that reshapes a nation’s institutions, identity, and direction. It happens roughly every 80–100 years in Anglo-American history, closing one historical chapter and opening the next.

Here are the major Fourth Turnings over the past five centuries:

1️⃣ Wars of the Roses Crisis (1459–1487)

Feudal England collapses into dynastic warfare. Out of the chaos rises the Tudor monarchy and the early modern state.

2️⃣ Armada Crisis (1569–1594)

Religious and imperial tensions peak. England survives the threat of the Spanish Armada and emerges as a global naval power.

3️⃣ Glorious Revolution Crisis (1675–1704)

Political instability and religious conflict culminate in the Glorious Revolution, establishing constitutional monarchy and parliamentary supremacy.

4️⃣ American Revolution (1773–1794)

The American colonies rebel against British rule, creating a new democratic republic and redefining the Western political model.

5️⃣ Civil War (1860–1865)

A violent clash over slavery and union rips the United States apart. The war redefines national identity and federal power.

6️⃣ Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946)

Economic collapse leads to the New Deal. Then, global war forces the U.S. into a leadership role on the world stage and forges modern American institutions.

7️⃣ Millennial Crisis (Began \~2008 – Ongoing)

Triggered by the 2008 financial crisis, this era is marked by institutional distrust, social fragmentation, political polarization, and rising global instability. Its climax—and resolution—still lie ahead.

Each Fourth Turning is dangerous—but also regenerative. These eras break the old order, but they also clear the ground for something new. The question isn’t whether the storm is coming.

It’s how we’ll respond when it hits.

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