Avoiding posting on Twitter at the moment. I’m just watching there. There’s enough overnight-expert Middle East hot takes and emotions are running high. The violence and scenes are terrible, and my heart goes out to all victims involved and those who will be caught up in it going forward.

I’ll instead post a few things in my lane here as it relates to global finance and todays actions relating to things I’ve already been covering but that now obviously have updates. Helps me get my thoughts together for what will eventually be my next client report.

-Actions like this show the difficulty of multinational currency agreements. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been having more peaceful relations lately as China brought them together (“enemy of my enemy is my pragmatic financial friend”, and so forth). They are both set to join BRICS+ in January 2024.

-But, Saudi Arabia has also been working with the US and Israel on normalizing relations with Israel, in exchange for US arms deals and such. Saudi Arabia was also making promises to raise oil output to alleviate oil prices if they grow too quickly, which the US wants.

-So this attack (w/ Iranian involvement and public support) puts Saudi Arabia in a weird place. Lots of division and competing goals within BRICS+. Has all sorts of implications for Saudi/Israeli relations, Saudi/US relations, and what happens in the coming weeks will affect how those go.

-Egypt and Ethiopia are also joining BRICS+ in January 2024 and they have had a multi year ongoing feud regarding the Grand Renaissance dam on the Nile.

-China and India are well known as not being on good terms. Border disputes and all that.

-Building trade and currency and military agreements between so many different cultures is a bigger challenge than doing so between US and West Europe.