The reserve currency privilege is not permanent. It is a function of trust, military reach, and lack of alternatives.

Two of those three are weakening. And for the first time in history, a credible alternative exists that is not controlled by any nation-state.

Central banks bought more gold in 2024-2025 than any two-year period in modern history. China, India, Turkey, and Poland are all accumulating. Several nations are settling bilateral trade in local currencies, bypassing the dollar entirely.

The transition will not be sudden. It will be gradual — then sudden. The historical pattern of reserve currency transitions (Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, France, Britain) suggests a 10-20 year decline phase before the shift becomes undeniable.

We are somewhere in that window.

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