_Developers_ often tell me that I can somehow make estimation more reasonable by attaching a probability to it. People do not understand probabilities. For a while, I would carry a nerf 5-shot revolver to meetings with one foam "bullet" in it and ask people to spin the barrel, point it at their heads, and pull the trigger. That's a 20% chance of failure, and was one of the few ways I came up with to make that concept truly concrete.

Source: x.com/allenholub/status/1820226183180771471