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I’m starting to think geopolitics isn’t even a real science or discipline. Whenever I read or listen to it, the “analysis” usually boils down to the practitioner explaining how their favorite country or region is secretly playing 4D chess.

It rarely feels objective. The frameworks are loose and the predictions are vague and the explanations almost always read like elaborate storytelling. It seems more like narrative-building than science where they try to make unpredictable human/state behavior fit into a neat (and often flawed) theory after the fact.

I mean how often has geopolitical analysis actually predicted major shifts? Almost never it seems. And yet after the fact the same analysts will retroactively claim “Oh, but the signs were there!”

Karadenizli 3mo ago 💬 2

This is why I'm a firm believer in [Great Man Theory](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_man_theory). There is so much entropy inside of every person's mind, and the world is so volatile, that very few decisions (rational or irrational) from a few people (sometimes just one) can change the course of history drastically. We'd live in a very different world, had a lot of improbable things we saw hadn't happened, and there's just as many potential events that you can't even consider, that could change the future we will see. This makes all geopolitical predictions impossible if your trying to predict more than a single black swan event in the future.

This should be the biggest whitepill for everyone. Literal nobodies have changed the course of history completely and utterly, many times. The only thing it takes is dedicating your life to it. You have the power to change the future for the whole world, but it ain't a part time gig. You will die in the process or become a household name, no in between.

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Discussion

Muslim Bitcoiner 3mo ago

I want to change the world but not have anyone know who I am. As long as Allah is pleased with me.

Karadenizli 3mo ago

As long as you have influence, you can be killed. A lot of the journalists killed by CIA or Israel were unknown, but they were fighting against them and intelligence services notice opposition before the normie masses.