Replying to Avatar Detective Deft Defector

Until we hit a million it doesn't matter because until then, every buy is a bargain and every sell is a loss to the sellers future.
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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 1y ago

This can be calculated if we assume a price model (such as all your models will be destroyed, bitcoin will be $13M) and an alternative investment opportunity of assumed average rate of return over a specific time.

Example, if we assume power law model and a time horizon of 16 years, then if bitcoin is bought at $1M, the average annual rate of return will be about 9%.

So if you had $1M and wanted $90k/yr, bitcoin would be a reasonable investment at $1M/bitcoin for 16 years. But bitcoin is a better investment at $100k: 26% ARR.

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Detective Deft Defector 1y ago

That's a lot of words to say buy more soon 😆

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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 1y ago

lol, true. But it does give some insight…there’s like $36T out there accepting less than half the expected ARR of bitcoin bought at $1M…granted this federal debt would never accept Bitcoin’s volatility, but still…that’s a lot of value they are leaving on the table.

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Detective Deft Defector 1y ago

If they don't take on debt to buy before I finish paying my current lines, I will. Fingers crossed we touch back to the 90s next bear season so I can top off a fraction of mine. Feels like everyone who says don't borrow to buy haven't drank enough Kool aid yet.

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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 1y ago

It’s all about carefully using leverage. I bought an expensive mobile oven doubling as a self driving sportscartruck. Did I make my 2017 mistake of selling bitcoin to buy it like my wife’s Honda minivan? Nope. That minivan has cost me like $700,000…I took out a loan for the CyberOven. At current bitcoin price compared to payment day, the $135,000 out the door price is effectively $110,000…including finance charge for the loan. I anticipate this costing sub $50k by the time I pay off the loan…of course continuing to stack would have been far better, but at some point one has to enjoy their stack too.