You can usually tell from someone's introductions post whether they are going to stay or not. If the post contains any of the following, you can be pretty sure that that will be their first and last post:
'Really looking forward to...'
'freedom tech'
'my friend told me to join'
They're famous / have a significant following elsewhere
My first post. But I'm newish to nostr.
https://njump.me/nevent1qqs9gh89s88x4yz5z0agr4sjayp59svqluq8aghk0gpewep0sg698zqppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgsy6j4hxl30hdd0pl2epd9harr0uakn5q4f0y000ldv7cqlneg04kqrqsqqqqqpsu6fy3
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See. My theory checks out. You didn't include anything listed lol:)