Dude, you're an early adopter. We all are.
I know you're frustrated, I've been there beating myself up for not holding onto what I had longer or not recognizing Bitcoin when I was first introduced to it. But things are going to be okay for us both. Hear me out. 🫂
Bitcoin is on track to hit a sustainable $1,000,000 per coin in late 2028, and $10,000,000 per coin in late 2031.
I've personally calculated that Bitcoin has a bottom trend line that has an exponentially growing slope, while it can and has had it's position on the Y axis change due to macro events, the slope value grows exponentially and at a consistent rate over time. There were only 2 macro events big enough to shift the trend line down on the Y axis, there was an approximate 10% drop in 2020 due to the COVID crash and 72.6% in 2021 due to China cutting the network in half and costing us significant momentum with it's ban on Bitcoin mining. As a result, we're much lower than we should or would be right now, but we're right back on track to continue to grow as we did before.
Despite those major events the rate of growth (the slope) has not changed. Bitcoin is growing as fast today as it did in 2013 - 2020. I've currently calculated this as 0.2046% a day compounding over time. This is an annual growth of 109.8% or a bit more than doubling every year. Bitcoin bounces off this line with significant consistency, and is within 60% of this value 53% of the time.
Lets see what that rate of growth means over time. Do you have $5000 in Bitcoin? That's a pretty good number to have at this point, how long do you think it'll take for it to grow to meaningful amounts at that rate if we just ignored bull runs that ultimately just crash back down towards the trendline? Let's find out.
To calculate 0.2046% daily growth over time on $5000 I use the equation $5000 * 1.002046^x. Where x is the number of days compounding.
$5000 * 1.002046^(365*4) = $98,844.33
That's a significant 20x growth in 4 years. But it doesn't just stop at that point. Let's hodl for another 4 years.
$98,844.33 * 1.002046^(365*4) = $1,954,040.
Now, in 8 years the dollar's value will almost be half of what it is today but that basically means $5000 today will turn into $1,000,000 of today's spending power in 8 years. Less than a decade assuming no new major global macro events like we saw the last 5 years.
Effectively, you can mentally just double a number every year and you can use that to figure out when to safely retire. For example: once you hit $250,000 you can safely spend $50,000 of your stack while the remaining $200,000 doubles to $400k the next year. You can then use another $60k and watch the rest double to $680k. Use another $75k and watch the rest double to $1,210,000. Use $100k and watch the rest double to $2,220,000 and so on.
Bitcoin is difficult, but it's also incredibly FUCKING easy compared to the American Nightmare we were all fed before of 45 years of work and then barely getting by in retirement. Just ignore the day to day volatility and take emotion out of play, don't get jealous of those who came in earlier, be patient and just stack little by little and you'll be a free man in just a few years. The math doesn't lie. Look at these 3 charts of an earlier calculation I did correcting only the Bitcoin mining ban and assuming a roughly 0.001% slower growth rate of 0.203% a day. The growth is astoundingly consistent. You think the last 15 years were cool? Get ready for the next 10. It's going to be a wild ride seeing Bitcoin grow extremely fast and be too big to ignore anymore very soon. 🖖🫂
