AGI and the structural foundations of democracy and the rule-based international order
Published on January 1, 2026 12:07 PM GMTSummary: This post argues that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) threatens both liberal democracy and rule-based international order through a parallel mechanism. Domestically, if AGI makes human labor economically unnecessary, it removes the structural incentive for inclusive democratic institutions—workers lose leverage when their contribution is no longer essential. Internationally, if AGI gives one nation overwhelming productivity advantages, it erodes other countries' comparative advantages, reducing the benefits of trade and weakening incentives to maintain a rule-based world order. The post draws historical parallels to early 20th century concerns about capital concentration, distinguishes between "maritime" (trade-dependent) and "continental" (autarkic) power strategies, and discusses what middle powers like the EU might do to remain relevant. The core insight is that both democracy and international cooperation rest on mutual economic dependence—and AGI could eliminate both dependencies simultaneously.Read this if you're interested in: AGI's geopolitical implications, how economic structures shape political systems, the future of liberal democracy, or strategic options for countries that won't lead in AGI development.Epistemic status: fairly speculative and likely incomplete or inaccurate, though with a lot of interesting links.