It is difficult for many aspect.. for example on glassnode the number of exchanges counted as "supply on exchanges" doesn't count many big players (like Robinhood for examples) and unknown addresses like Coinbase has.

It is like predicting how the wether will be IMO.. the more high and fast the price will go, there's more possiblity new supply will come up from existing old holder.. there is a price for everyone. Anyway I see big volatility incoming because of low liquidity on some exchanges.. of course it goes both sides.