I think I must have an uncanny sense of timing. It seems I’m able to sense when the market will move - after an extended period of low volatility - but cannot be sure whether it will move up or down.

Example 1: When I sold some bitcoin a few weeks ago to pay tax, the price jumped $2000+ the next day.

Example 2: Yesterday I had the same sense of an imminent market move and needed to ensure I had funds ready for my next tax payment on May 7. Erring on the side of caution (unless the market moved down) I sold bitcoin at $28,250. When I woke up this morning bitcoin was $29,300.

Hopefully, there's a lesson in there for me!