Subnostr

Precisely yesterday I looked at that chart and yeah, we're totally off, but it may just be because we're like 8 months early.

I personally expected the cycle to expire around the time we reached gold's market cap, and I imagined that to happen around 2033. But I didn't expect the ETFs to have such effect as we're seeing.

I wonder how large the ETFs can become in fiat terms, and how many of us are true psycho hodlers who will simply not give up their BTC to Larry and his criminal gang. If we keep constraining supply like this, we may end up skipping one cycle.

Now sovereign funds will be able to discreetly buy BTC through US-regulated ETFs, or set up their own after the Big Boss has legitimized them.

And let's remember that as of Jan 1, 2025 central banks will have the legal power to keep up to 2% of their balance sheets in "crypto" too....

ish4k 1y ago

you got several points there. let’s see if it touches the top this time or, like the past cycle, we’d print a “LL”, which would confirm the curve.

gold mc is a great parameter and the ultimate goal. I bet we’d reach 27 mil before the crash. almost there, people would freak out and yeah… end up holding it till the bottom. I wouldn’t say skip a cycle, but what if the next cycle doesnt print a new ATH? cycle still, with a proper LL (no “” this time). considering we’re already in a new cycle, I mean. I believe in a new ATH, but it’d be the last one of this macro cycle.

which takes us to central banks… how many BTCs would it be 2%? 1 BTC = 1 BTC, oke. irl, tho, would it be better for central banks if 1 BTC is 12k or if it’s 120k? if your 1 BTC, now 2% of your balance, suddenly turns into 20%, what would you do? on the other hand, if it turns into 0,2%, what would you do then?

not that it’d be manipulated. you can’t manipulate math. but I feel they somehow understand math more than others (aka we the plebs).

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

hh 1y ago

Well, the central bank thing is just the latest guidelines from the Bank for International Settlements, issued before there were ETFs and before states started to stealth their way into BTC mining and hoarding.

If they find that BTC is "too volatile" to the upside, they will simply amend the guideline to allow for a higher %, or to give it a boom value only equivalent to the one they bought at or whatever other trickery they come up with, at their convenience.

And as far as downside goes, same thing, but I think the fact that central banks themselves hold BTC will be an anchor to eliminate a lot of the volatility *once we reach a large enough market cap*.

ish4k 1y ago

it’s a possibility. as it’s BIS, tho, I’d expect something dirtier.

ish4k 1y ago

they’re gonna trick us all, then break miner’s legs. damn.