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I know what you mean. I dont often do this either. But I do happen to have the best track record in the history of bitcoin, and other things outside bitcoin, I won the biggest and most famous prediction competition in europe. Generally I lean towards your stance. But if you have a sound methodology, you can buck the trend. This is simply supply and demand trends. Nothing magical going on.
Discussion
I don't want to go in an endless discussion and i hope you're right, or maybe even pessimistic. But competions always have winners just like lotteries always have winners.
Supply and demand are definitely influenced by either adoption or prohibition.
You and I may know prohibition of bitcoin is pretty useless but there are still some 7 billion who prefer to do what the law tells them.
You are conflating random outcomes with games of skill. There's no place you can go from that starting point. FWIW bayesian analysis is what you want to use here.
Adoption is correlated to supply demand dynamics, but folks normally misguess the impact. For example lightning is everywhere but only actually 5000 btc. Capital is more important.
Prohibition is likely to happen on alt coins, these things dont happen fast and are given with lots of notice. There could be prohibition in the next 14 months, but that would be an unexpected game-changing event. More likely is a liquidation. Or something like a contentious fork that could split the chain. Then all bets are off.
However supply/demand with a business-as-usual next year, should see it trend to 100k+.
Just going through my bookmarks and you were right. We've been going well over a bunch times already while also often dipping under again. What a year.