I like his vibe
nostr:note1vu0s2kxehdjc85nfu2lq6rlusnzqn7mc2sfyw4vzneauzyg7pmcq6r3py4
Discussion
I'm thinking ... the US is attacking China's export revenue. In return, China can attack the US' biggest export -- the US dollar. China owns some ~$750bn of Treasuries, which they can sell. Within 18 hours of Treasuries starting sell off this past Tuesday, the US put a pause on tariffs (for everyone but China) -- but, point being: Does China care more about losing 15% of its exports, or does the US care more about the Treasury market? I'm not convinced the US has the upper hand?!
They have the upper hand with their allies, this appears to be them telling all countries to pick a side which is hugely risky because they’ve got 18 months til midterms in which they need to get this all sorted else it could all be scuppered, and forcing countries into a binary black or white choice which isnt optimal for them is likely to have unintended consequences.
Too much too early. I understand the American PoV that they had to play the hand now but this isn’t going to end up how they wanted and I’m not sure the tradeoff zone it lands in is going to be worth it for everyone to maintain it which likely means waves of instability beyond the next 18 months.
I wouldn’t want to be in a traditional western allied country during this.