After yesterday’s debate between the four main candidates for Chancellor in Germany, polls place the CDU/CSU at 30% of the vote, followed by the AfD with 22%, the SPD of Olaf Scholz in third with 15%, and the Greens close behind with 13%.

If this trend is confirmed, the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, is expected to emerge victorious. In terms of defense policy, Merz supports sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, something Scholz has consistently refused to do.

The AfD, a party considered “far-right” in Germany and led by Alice Weidel, is projected to take second place according to this poll. Weidel advocates ending sanctions on Russia, resuming purchases of Russian gas, and halting all German military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine’s defense.

Despite polling lower than in January 2024, the AfD has made significant gains in recent months, largely due to strong support from Elon Musk and members of the Trump administration, particularly U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Many believe that if this momentum continues, the party could perform even better than expected in the elections.

Due to her stance on ending support for Ukraine and fostering closer ties with Russia, Weidel is also the Kremlin’s preferred candidate. Alexander Dugin, known as “Putin’s ideologue,” has urged Germans to vote for the AfD.

The clear loser in this scenario is Olaf Scholz, widely seen as a weak Chancellor lacking decisiveness in both domestic and foreign affairs.

Germany’s elections will take place next Sunday, February 23.