I'm hopeful but I have some doubts. That said I'm new to Nostr so someone smarter than I can correct me. I feel like the decentralization of nostr is exactly what will hold it back. Many countries of the world won't want to give up backdoors and power to censor like they can on centralized social media platforms. I mean, just look at Telegram recently. And I'm sure they'll come for X soon enough. I can already see issues with some governments because you can use Bitcoin on Nostr to make payments and receive payments without going through the banking system's permission and without KYC/AML compliance. Similar to Bitcoin adoption in the early days, now that I think about it. If the media gets turned against us, how can we prevent Nostr from being treated like TOR or Telegram? Normies won't want anything to do with it if they are taught that, "Nostr is for criminals and hackers."

Just a concern of the top of my head. I don't know.

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the fact that they can't stop me or anyone else from using it is why it will succeed, no?

Not necessarily. It won't die but that doesn't mean it will "succeed." They can't stop you from using it. Though, they could have ISPs try to censor the clients. Easy to get around for techies but that will block out a lot of normies. They can region lock the apps. Wallet of Satoshi is blocked in the US, I had to use my alternate region account to download it. Again, easy to get around but little things like that will block out a lot of people.

Then that brings up the KYC/AML issues with bitcoin payments. They can threaten you with tax compliance or even say that you're "funding terrorism" by zapping sats or something ridiculous like that. That will immediately blacklist nostr clients from a nation. Still technically accessible but most people won't bother using it out of fear or ignorance.