You cannot have a currency where one entity steals 30% - 50% of the entire supply in 24 hours and it retains its value. It is guaranteed to crash. Same as a body going in to shock.
And this is just one game theory. There are 100 others. The community can try to poke little holes in them all -- or it just roll up sleeves and get to work migrating. What seems smarter?
Between P2PK and P2TR addresses combined, there's about 4.15 million BTC. Not sure where you get the 30-50% number from.
Not that I'm opposed to some new softfork to make a new address type. It'll probably have to be done eventually, and may as well be worked on sooner rather than later (though, frankly, CTV and CSFS seem a far bigger priority). It'd also not do any harm to have as long as it's done without opening the door for more inscription nonsense. Might be nice to see something used even less than taproot for a change :-D.
All right, it did occur to me I should be including reused addresses which use a hash rather than exposed pubkey. Don't have those numbers in front of me but it does seem likely we'd at least get in your range.
Yeah, hard to say exactly, but it's a lot. Enough of the supply that they'd be far too influential going forward.
Also the in-flight "sniped" transactions. The more panic the attacker causes the more congestion, so the longer it takes for transactions to clear, the more chance the lab to snipe transactions in flight. Once they see the pubkey for a big one they run the private key, they get the private key output before it's cleared, they punch in RBF with massive fees from their already stolen supply (anything less than the value of the bitcoin being transferred is profit) and they pick off some big ones. These all add up. A lot of people move their coin out of panic not knowing if their pubkey is exposed or not (not really sure what that even means).
This is why their main goal is to cause panic, chaos and critically massive congestion in the first 3 days. If they can slow it down to hours, they win big. They might also have a plan to pay off miners to slow down the hash rate.
It's actually quite a fun one to game theory out.
