Why would SEC approve bitcoin spot ETFs? If I believed or pretended to believe what they pretend to believe, I would not approve it. Even if disapproval was against the law and constitution, I would not. And then would make sure that all the courts do not approve it either, regardless of the laws. I would say it is against climate or democracy or lgbtqp and censor everyone, but would not approve it.

That would cause usd price in bitcoin to jump a bit for a short while, until a short while after halvening the entire hell would break loose.

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Individual incentives.

The SEC is a legal entity but within it & behind it are individuals.

There's a lot more fiat to be made in approving the ETFs than there is denying them. Its a bit of a Pandora's box for them though. Once they open it, it will be near impossible for them to shut it again.

Popcorn moment.