Why would SEC approve bitcoin spot ETFs? If I believed or pretended to believe what they pretend to believe, I would not approve it. Even if disapproval was against the law and constitution, I would not. And then would make sure that all the courts do not approve it either, regardless of the laws. I would say it is against climate or democracy or lgbtqp and censor everyone, but would not approve it.
That would cause usd price in bitcoin to jump a bit for a short while, until a short while after halvening the entire hell would break loose.