It feels like America under Trump is playing a game of "chicken" with other countries.

The U.S. knows that its biggest strength is being the world's largest consumer market, meaning other countries benefit from selling their goods to America. Trump leverages this by threatening to reduce purchases (through tariffs) to pressure these countries into making concessions that benefit the U.S.

If the targeted country gives in, the issue is resolved. But if not, it turns into a game of chicken—two drivers heading toward a collision, where the one who flinches first loses, and the other gets everything they want.

However, this strategy carries risks for the U.S. as well. Reduced access to cheap foreign goods could lead to uncontrolled inflation, making life harder for American consumers.

To mitigate this risk, the U.S. engages in these trade battles one at a time rather than confronting multiple countries simultaneously. If at any point the cost outweighs the benefits, the game is paused.

For other countries, the best survival strategy is to stay off America’s radar for as long as possible, hoping that once the U.S. gets what it wants, it will stop.

This leads to speculation about which countries will be targeted first. The likeliest candidates are those with a moderate trade surplus with the U.S. since countries with the highest surpluses pose a greater risk of making the U.S. the "chicken" in this game, while those with small surpluses wouldn't engage at all. As a result, these mid-tier surplus countries are the most vulnerable, as their stakes are too high to afford a loss.