Exactly. It seems by this guys article, his definition of “success” mean more widely used than FedCoin. Or like World Reserve in the next 5 years. So sure, by that definition it may look “unsuccessful”.

But as long as blocks are still clearing 10 min on avg, there’s no double spends, Bitcoin succeeds in my book.

If FedCoin spreads quicker than bitcoin early on, I’d view that as a United States failure rather than a Bitcoin failure