Subnostr

I'll say this - I don't disagree with the MSTR bull case, but the APO comparison and the general logic there doesn't pass the sniff test.

I was once more active trying to pick single stocks before Bitcoin (and before I knew how these markets worked) and I saw a food production company trading at essentially 2x, while another was trading at 10x.

I thought, great! I'll buy the undervalued one, since it should be worth 10x too! And then the 10x one crashed -80% and my stock tanked with it.

In a bitcoinized world, nobody is paying 3,000,000 bitcoin for a company which owns 500,000 bitcoin and not much else. Someone might pay 510,000 bitcoin for the brand and leadership team. That's about it.

I understand we aren't there yet and therefore MSTR can continue to outperform bitcoin, if you are willing to understand that you are playing a fiat game and there are many risks + assumptions baked into your view.

Telluride 1y ago

I love your take.

I’ve considered this angle and it appears that there are many folks that live in countries that don’t allow investing in BTC or its etfs. I have had people specifically tell me they wanted exposure to bitcoin and that MSTR was the best performing derivative with exposure to bitcoin.

Additionally its a nasdaq listed company.

People want what they want.

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Zach⚡️ 1y ago

Agreed. And I've clearly been wrong by being cautious about it since $100 lmao. It's just not my arena.

The only other thing I'll say is, all the trapped capital is how Saylor gets his yield. If he dilutes shares to buy Bitcoin, that is the gap he is bridging. It's a bit similar to shitcoins - it becomes a race to zero once enough people play the game. But as we've seen, that could take a decade to play out. I'd give a decent probability to MSTR being over $1000 this year.

Best of luck to you.

Telluride 1y ago

The convertible bonds cant be exercised until a specific strike price. Only then does the “dilution” occur.

Keeps the ratio ~2.3-3x bitcoin.

Im telling you man, what he’s doing is different.

There’s 100s of hours of debate on this available.

I highly recommend PunterJeff who was just on with Preston Pysh a week ago. He explains it very eloquently.

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/microstrategy-2025-w-jeff-walton/