My reply to additional questions asked in response to the below:

Everybody, myself included, is extremely bad at predicting the future, especially in the short term. For this reason, your message was the catalyst to consolidate my thoughts which I have posted on NOSTR and my website.

I am well informed about the possible outcomes in both the short and long term, but have no special insight as to the probable outcome.

If you want a TL;DR, then I am still extremely confident on the long term outcome of Bitcoin 4+ years, but there is a possibility of the normal 4 year bull / bear cycle breaking this time.

What this means for you is still be prepared for a bull run in the near term, but if this doesn’t happen, then sticking with plan A of simply waiting 4+ years for the next cycle is still a good strategy.

I don’t know if Crypto will crash or whether it will crash this cycle, but if it does, then usually alt coins crash sooner and harder than Bitcoin.

The intentional devaluing of the USD and the possible start of WW3 are events that will effect BTC, how much and in what ways are uncertain.

As the world splits, Bitcoin may be the monetary glue that allows the world to trade, just as Russia and Ukraine use Bitcoin to fund their war efforts now, which means it will absorb the value from all other currencies rapidly and become extremely dominate very soon, or it could fall with the rest of the currencies.

I suspect the former, rather than the latter, but in this, I lack experience or expertise.

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