Nostr Web Client

OK, this is the most profound forward looking thing that’s occurred to me in the past 6 months.

For 30 years big tech is built on B2C models that leverage the enormous surface of the internet. Build 1 good monetisation channel and just scale it to 10^9 people.

But AI is not like this. Not at all.

AI is a solution to the sprawling complexity of discrete connections that network throughout the entire economy. It is 10^6 monetisation channels each occurring 10^3 instances.

To win this space you need a B2B biz model and you need legendary workflow management.

This makes it much easier to filter out winners and losers over the next 10 years.

I actually think ChatGPT will disappear as it’s a loss leader product and only the OpenAI API will survive, but it will have to compete with a bunch of other API’s and local models.

I think it’s obvious that the end state is local AI. There will be a day when training peaks and then terminally declines as economics is the real law of the jungle.

Chasing diminishing returns is simply not worth the cost. There is no free lunch here.

liminal 🦠 2y ago

Well stated, training will peak, at least until a decent trade off is achieved for local models.

Composable, hyper specialized AIs offering services to other AIs seem like the direction.

"Additionally, a new fast growing class of “organisms” (i.e. intelligent LLM or AI Agents) are unable to easily gain access to fiat systems of payment as they aren’t registered “entities” with any nation. However, these agents will certainly need to pay for resources whether from gated APIs or paid sources of data. Plus, they will need to be able to effectively evaluate pricing signals to determine the most efficient path to accomplish a task. These payments, evaluations, and decisions will lead to thousands of AI agents making countless micro-payments and micro-decisions a day. Given these factors, it makes sense the creators of AI agents will ultimately gravitate towards a globally available, permissionless, near-instantly settled internet native monetary system in Bitcoin and Lightning rather than the traditional fiat system which simply cannot support these types of payments or evaluations"

https://lightning.engineering/posts/2023-07-05-l402-langchain/

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Discussion

⚡️🌱🌙 2y ago

I think agents will have to be owned, or our legal system will fall over pretty quickly.

But law of the jungle (I’m gonna start using this term a lot more), will eventually win out and systems will have to be resilient to operating under jungle law (no law at all).

Local AI, is a lot like the second amendment. It’s a check on unchecked power and I think it will be inevitable that early proliferation will make local AI ubiquitous.

Bitcoin works under jungle law and so does nostr. Permissionless tech is really going to become more necessary, but we are probably 15 years early here? I am often too early on these sort of things.

Super hard to predict this stuff, but it probably pays to have high conviction here and just be in the right place indefinitely and just wait for the right time.