It's very likely that a lot of the apparent efficacy was manufactured by the way vaccinated / not were classified.

Eg if you got covid within 2 weeks of vaccine, you were counted as vaccinated.

That alone can basically make anything appear effective. After a while you get reversion to the mean type of thing and the "efficacy" disappears.

https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/vaccine-efficacy-cheap-trick-by-exclusion

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