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There's an issue with this thesis:

If monero took over #Bitcoin - the absolute digital scarcity, how long before it's overtaken by another privacy shitcoin like dash, zcash, rose, decred, keep, zen, dero, verge, pivx, zano, vertcoin, grin. wownero, ghost, onion?

Yes, at this point, the humanity is fucked and will be betting on the next coin for eternity. There will be celebrities, companies, governments, pushing for their shitcoin and flippening will become a household word. Dark future indeed.

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Monero is slow and the only option they have is custodial, gtfo

I think Monero did things out of sequence. Bitcoin is using the Trojan horse method. Reeling people in with money go up tech first. Privacy will be from 2nd and 3rd layers.