Yea, everyone I spoke with was very pragmatic towards his posturing. They understand he wants them to choose between China and the US and they realize we’re their natural partner even though they would like good relations with both. The Canal Zone was interesting since it’s clearly a belt of land separate from the rest of the country. It’s possible the US could take a larger management role in the zone and leave the rest of Panama untouched. Interestingly, the canal is only 6-8% of GDP and their financial markets are above 60%. Most of the rest is tourism, fisheries and agriculture and local trade. Their financial center is largely tied to NY and serves US business interests in the region so Panama can’t afford to try to fight back against an expansionist Trump Cabinet. The best thing they can do is demand investment in exchange for keeping the Chinese out and offer a partnership on the canal operations that keeps them involved but guarantees the US security interests.

My thesis when choosing Panama as a plan B destination was that it is geopolitically important but under developed with good air and sea access and sustainable natural resources (good food and water options). It’s outside of the Hurricane belt but benefits from a tropical climate which means if we enter an energy constrained time you can still thrive there. It’s culturally welcoming and accepting of Americans and it also has good property rights and leans business friendly. The banking and investment options are also good and they’re fairly neutral on Bitcoin as far as I can see. Lastly, they have tons of American and International schools. All that still holds after my visit but for our plan C place I’m considering someplace further off the beaten path like Paraguay or rural Argentina. We won’t be ready to explore those options for quite a while though.

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