Does bitcoin drop from here because rising oil means more inflation and less cuts, or rise because Fed stuck means more banks fail and bank runs resume.
Discussion
The halving is never priced in until right before the halving itself.
If a Bitcoin drops in a hodlthon, and nobody's around to sell it, did it really drop?
The only thing that is dropping is the supply. Free alpha.
Drop on what timescale?
The long term trend of bitcoin is not linear. It will dip and spike but ultimately it stairsteps each halving to nearly infinity
Up because of both