Hear me out!
What if the cycle is broken, what if there is no second leg of the bull run come Q4 and that run to 100k was it, and the gains were front loaded this time so we just chop around until the next halving
While altcoins continue to bleed out
I'm putting this at 15% possibility!
What if BTC has just completed wave-1 of this cycle?
I can see that, in 2021 we popped to 60K then had china mining fud and had a major pop off to 69 in Q4, most likely we could see a repeat of this and we top out at $130-150k
Anything is possible but to me this seems very unlikely
I do see a decline in volatility since about 2022 early
Therefore I think the MV RV going up to a very high number is a low probability this time
Every time the reward for mining drops in half the importance of mining drops in half and so the four-year cycle becomes less of a thing and it is already very much not much of a thing
But you can see from the numbers that institutions are buying and individuals are selling
When the individuals stop selling, the long-term holders, who aren't holding, then it's going to shoot up to 150 pretty quickly
What you see in the graphs is that it went up to the 40s stay there for a few months went up to the '70s stayed there for 8 months went up to the hundreds essentially stayed there for so far 7 months.
Within a month or so it's probably going to go up to 150 and then stay there for 8 months
We also don't know how much leverage is building up right now, which can also put pressure on spot prices to the upside! My guess is also 150 as the top of this cycle, i am wondering who are the sellers though? Miners? Shitcoiners who need to keep their project going? Long term holders who want to make that big purchase like a home?
Who is selling??
I don't know but I wish they would sell more & crash it cuz I need to buy more
Halvings matter less and less. It is a feature not a bug.
Adoption matters more and more.
Yeah for sure, supply cuts are expected, it could be priced in earlier than we think, but who the F is selling is my wonder? If you've seen this thing do100k why wouldn't you be hodling
I also wonder who is selling, and then also whether all these bitcoin Treasury companies are just buying rehypothicated paper bitcoin -- because there does seem to be a bunch of new demand, and the idea of selling at this scale doesn't compute. 🤔
