For your ongoing consideration... 👀
- Sept 1930
- May 1971
- Aug 2001
- Dec 2024?
Sound money + Hard assets vs. Stocks + Financialized assets
Portfolio managers take heed.
#Gold
#Bitcoin
Discussion
HERE WE GOOOOO
Gold and #Bitcoin are going to win out every time……
Look at the trash in the equities markets that are trying to act like money with ridiculous P/E ratios……
They are not money and this chart shows it!
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Do you believe bitcoin has decoupled enough to stay strong (like gold) in the downturn of US financial assets?
I know it’s a global asset, but still trading pretty correlated to stocks currently right?
EXPLAIN
Someone explain this to me like I’m 10
Priced in gold, the stock market is at about the same level now as it was in 1929. Therefore, stock market gains have been entirely due to monetary expansion over this nearly 100 year time scale, though this chart is probably not dividend corrected. That ratio though changes depending on the boom/bust of the business cycle. The implication here is that the market is still significantly over valued in hard asset terms so that gold/btc should do a lot better than the S&P. This does not mean gold/BTC will go up necessarily, only that it will drop less than the market on dips and rise faster than the market on upswings.
lol. Literally two days ago I sold some SPX ETF I had held since 2012, and bought an ETF that should track gold. During the mini pump after Trump’s pause.
Can only do stocks and ETFs on that account, and the ETF choice is somewhat limited.
Though the RSI tells a different story.
Need to have Joe back on to help get you thru this bearishness again! Haha
SPX will be toast, and literally EVERYONE is talking about capital rotation into gold. Interestingly, look at your chart's RSI at SPX's last highs. Hardly at the same levels to previous crashes. Similar with MACD.
If you check resistance levels all the way back from 1929 we're approaching some seriously bouncy ground. SPX does have further to fall though, and HAS to fundamentally also with this 90-day tariff malarkey.
But you're a macro guy. Throw in the long-term credit cycle, plus how history shows we have a blow-off top before we go pop, and we look like we'll have a fake recovery starting in July followed by a blow-off top which takes us into that April-June 2026 area before that train wreck where we collapse. Plus, knowing "pump and dump" Trump and his attachment to ego, you think he's not going to ensure SPX booms to reflect on him? That'll be the nail in the coffin.
Gold will uber-perform then. I think the more interesting question is Bitcoin versus Gold's performance come then. Bitcoin has shown some recent signs of decoupling, but when enough shit hits the fan will it stick more to Gold or Bitcoin?
Certain colluding miners + Saylor + CoinBase + BlackRock: What will they do come D-day? Us diamond hands are minnows.
We miss your livestreams Dr Jeff!
STRONG OPINION:
Bitcoin has clearly entered the global Store of Value phase.
US magacap technology stocks will slowly lose their SoV status (which they’ve enjoyed since 2009) over the coming 10-15 years.
Everything that is good for gold is 10x to 100x good for bitcoin.
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