No doubt pockets of real estate will always do well, but holy shit take a look at these (literally) falling apart home listings across the U.S. and tell me we don’t see a huge correction at some point.
Discussion
It can do well against dollars forever but that's also how we ended up with such a a horrible real estate market
Against Bitcoin, not so much
I am curious if there will be a big dollar denominated crash soon or if we are already in early Weimar mode
At some point though with some of these listings you’re essentially just selling land, as so many are teardown structures anyways.
A lot of these listings aren’t well maintained homes (again literally failing apart) and aren’t in high demand geographic areas.
Name me one scarce thing that is going down in fiat terms
Long term yes, real estate will appreciate in fiat terms, but like all scarce, desirable assets, that does not mean it is immune to corrections.
Soon even normies will see real estate as a headache vs bitcoin. When that happens, no one will want a third or fourth house in the hamptons. It may hit the luxury market first, but it will hit hard.
The problem in evaluating the success of any investment is what you're measuring it in.
Even Bitcoin is susceptible to this.
Australia's real estate prices are even more bloated than the US RE prices. RE is a very popular SoV here because of the tax incentives from negative gearing & that RE has historically outperformed inflation.
I don't see RE going down much in nominal terms here. The incentives for politicians is to keep pumping the Ponzi. Grants for newly built homes are filling up new housing estates with cheaply constructed houses. It's quite insane to watch.
Here's a yearly snapshot of median Australian house prices in both Pacific Pesos & Bitcoin