Crude Oil Forecast: Anticipating a Downward Trend | June 26, 2023

A recent dip in crude oil prices to $75 for the first time is perceived as a weakness that might further drive down prices to around $60 to $58 later this year. This prediction aligns with the modest decrease in futures prices over time. It's noteworthy that, despite crude oil generally being a more expensive asset over time due to storage and capital costs, current futures curves are nearly flat. This change could be attributed to the technical aspects influencing crude oil prices.

When viewing the market's performance, closing prices below $75 in May and potentially in June signifies a trend that cannot be ignored. It's expected that crude oil will not exceed $76 until a drop to the $60 to $58 range has occurred, likely later this year. While global events, such as the ongoing Ukraine conflict and instability in Russia, can significantly impact the market, technical signals remain a reliable indicator of future performance. This viewpoint doesn't anticipate monthly closures above $76 for a substantial period. Regardless of potential news headlines influencing the market, the technicals suggest a bearish trend is already in motion, pointing to a downward trajectory. Each market is unique, with its own set of conditions, and the aim is to follow these conditions to inform investment decisions rather than trying to trade off derivative markets. #CrudeOil #CL #News #MarketUpdate