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https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt

Really interesting analysis that has been overlooked. tl;dr: someone carefully looked through corporate records, and found that hundreds of billions of dollars of sketchy loans have been given to Russian defense contractors that probably can't pay them back. These aren't voluntary loans: the Russian government passed a law in 2022 forcing banks to loan money at low rates to defense contractors.

Previously it's been generally thought that about 15% of Russia's true GDP is being spent on the invasion. Taking forced loans into account, it's quite possible the real number is double that.

Yet more evidence that "ordinary Russians" are ultimately responsible for the invasion. You simply can't have this much % of GDP involved in a war without every working Russian making a significant contribution.

Western countries donating weapons to Ukraine should allow them to be used on any military or economic target in Ukraine. Destruction of the Russian electricity grid would be a good priority along with oil and gas.

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Discussion

Constantin 11mo ago

Western countries donating weapons to Ukraine should allow them to be used on any military or economic target in RUSSIA (not only in Ukraine's occupied territories).

Other than that, you're a breath of fresh air. A few notes back, somebody is "just asking" how Zelensky has money to send firefighters to help in LA. 🤦

Peter Todd 11mo ago

😂😂😂😂 quite the typo.

Yeah, the firefighter thing is stupid. For starters, IIUC in long distance mutual aid situations the firefighters (or whatever) coming in from somewhere else are often paid (mutual aid with neighboring communities is IIUC usually not paid, as there's a reasonable expectation of reciprocity). I'm sure the US has the budget to pay for their transportation costs and salaries.

Second, Ukraine has ~60,000 first responders. I'm sure they can spare 150 woodland trained firefighters for a few weeks who don't have much work to do in the middle of winter. Ukraine is a lot colder than LA.

zebra 11mo ago

the fact that ordinary russians mostly support invasion we know here for the fact. many here have relatives in russia, and just ask any ukrainian about conversations with relatives in russia. and these conversations are private, it is not like putin forced "poor russians" to support war.

Peter Todd 11mo ago

Exactly what I've been told too. Peoples' friends and family either have already left Russia. Or, quite often, they're no longer talking to them because they support the invasion.

Of course, a lot of Russians have left, as least among the wealthier class.

Analogue Dog 11mo ago

Just another puff piece to try to prolong the slaughter of young Slavs. China and India will continue to buy and pre-buy an amount of energy and energy futures at the right price, so Russia is more than capable of mitigating any systemic risk in its financial services sector.