how do you know? i think something to look at is how many hardware wallets have been sold. if the hardware wallet companies are staying in business, that's a clue re where the bitcoin is.

i understand that some people use hw to store shitcoins, but i suspect that number is low since in general they don't know what they're doing.

in 2024, the hw wallet market was estimated at $474m. if the avg prive of a hw is $150, that comes to 3.1m devices sold. that's just for 2024.

even if you assume everyone has 3 devices or people are upgrading to better devices each year, the market is projected to grow to a $2.4b industry.

this does not suggest that 50% of bitcoin is on exchanges. this suggests people value self- or shared- custody solutions.