China’s Approach to Trump: Combining Cooperation and Resistance

The U.S.-China relationship has displayed a pattern of shifting dynamics. At times, President Xi Jinping contacts Donald Trump to offer congratulations and discuss mutual cooperation. At other moments, China imposes tariffs on U.S. goods and increases its military presence in the South China Sea. This dual approach, often termed “negotiation amid confrontation,” reflects a deliberate strategy. Below is an explanation of China’s actions and objectives.

Xi’s approach to Trump, who returned to the presidency recently, involves a combination of diplomatic outreach and assertive measures. Rather than adopting a single path—such as outright conflict or full concessions—China employs both cooperation and resistance. This tactic aims to maintain flexibility, respond to U.S. policies, and protect China’s interests amid competition over trade, technology, and global influence.

Cooperation Through Negotiation

One component of this strategy emphasizes negotiation. Xi seeks to present China as a willing partner in dialogue with the U.S. and the international community. Following Trump’s election victory, Xi sent a letter to U.S. business leaders affirming China’s openness to trade. He later held a phone call with Trump, described by China’s Foreign Ministry as “constructive,” suggesting potential for improved relations. This outreach aligns with China’s economic priorities, as it faces challenges like deflation and a struggling property sector, making the avoidance of prolonged trade conflict advantageous. By highlighting dialogue, China positions itself as a reasonable actor, particularly as Trump has introduced tariffs, including a 10% levy on Chinese imports.

This cooperative stance also includes offers of incentives, such as potential invitations for Trump to visit China or commitments to purchase more U.S. goods. These gestures resemble past negotiations, like the Phase One trade agreement signed previously, and are intended to align with Trump’s preference for tangible outcomes.

Resistance Through Confrontation

In parallel, China maintains a resolute stance on critical issues. When the U.S. implemented its recent tariffs, China responded with retaliatory duties on American imports and indicated possible restrictions on U.S. companies. Xi has upheld firm positions on matters like Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory, and technology regulations, showing no willingness to concede despite U.S. demands. Additionally, China has increased its military activities in contested waters and tightened control over rare minerals essential to U.S. industries. These actions signal that China is prepared to counter pressure with significant pushback.

This firmness serves both external and internal purposes. Externally, it communicates resolve to the U.S. Internally, it reinforces Xi’s authority, particularly after securing an extended leadership term, by appealing to domestic support for standing firm against foreign influence.

Reasons for a Dual Approach

China’s combination of cooperation and resistance serves multiple goals:

Responding to Unpredictability: Trump’s approach includes sudden policy shifts. By using mixed signals, China mirrors this unpredictability, keeping its next steps uncertain and potentially encouraging negotiation over escalation.

Balancing Interests: China addresses domestic needs through this strategy. Businesses benefit from continued U.S. trade facilitated by cooperation, while assertive actions resonate with citizens who value a strong national stance.

Preserving Options: Avoiding a fixed strategy allows adaptability. If Trump seeks a limited agreement—on issues like technology or trade—China can engage positively. If tensions rise, China can escalate while attributing responsibility to U.S. actions.

Historical Context

This approach builds on prior interactions with Trump during his first term. Initial diplomatic engagements were followed by a U.S.-initiated trade conflict, prompting China to respond with tariffs while eventually securing a trade deal. In the current context, with a weakened economy but strengthened political control, Xi has refined this method to address both U.S. policies and internal dynamics.

Current Developments

Recent events illustrate this dual strategy. Xi has suggested possibilities for high-level meetings and emphasized stable relations. Simultaneously, in response to U.S. tariffs, China has implemented countermeasures and pursued international recourse through bodies like the World Trade Organization, maintaining both engagement and resistance.

Potential Outcomes

The effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain. Cooperation could lead to agreements that mitigate broader conflict, benefiting China’s position. However, if Trump interprets these efforts as insufficient, he may intensify pressure, as seen in past escalations. Given China’s economic constraints, prolonged confrontation could pose risks. Nonetheless, this blend of negotiation and confrontation aims to sustain China’s leverage without triggering an unmanageable crisis.

China’s actions—extending offers of dialogue while preparing for resistance—reflect a calculated effort to navigate its rivalry with the U.S., balancing opportunities for agreement with readiness for contention.