It’s not a feeling. It’s math.

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If I were your professor, at this point I'd say "Let me see your work."😜

Since I'm not, I'll simply poliitely ask, can you point me to any statistical /mathematic references supporting this view?

You’d have to make many assumptions which no one really knows the answer to:

Number of advanced civilizations, number of simulations carried out - this could be near infinite, number of real civs (1?)

You’d multiple those out and divide by the same number plus one to get your %

It would be a very high percentage chance that we are in a simulation.

The odds are greatly in favor of that assuming we actually have a civilization capable of running those sims (which in itself is impossible to know if you’re in one of those sims). For all we know, the real civ already advanced that far and it’s us humans running sims to better our own odds of survival. This is all speculative too.

Elon makes it a point that any rate of technological progress gets you to a point where such simulation is possible.

Oh and we have to assume the people in a simulation can’t tell they are not real.