Yeah, I've been thinking about this and at one time tried to find alternate ways of calculating market cap that would in some way adjust for the degree of illiquidity.

I don't know if it's willful ignorance or just convenient convention that we include lost coins in the "official" market cap. But I think they definitely shouldn't.

Which again begs the question as you point out, but what about long term HODLing? Isn't that kinda the same thing?

I think it is similar, but not black and white. Which is why I was curious to search out alternatives to the normal way of calculating market cap where you just multiply supply with spot price.

I do think there is something interesting to explore there, and perhaps express mathematically. The degree of illiquidity exists on a spectrum and I think an adjusted market cap should somehow reflect that.

Btw, I tried to zap your post, but notice you don't have a lightning wallet setup ;-)