What’s the likelihood we end up with separate lightning networks?

Here’s how I see this happening.

The government passes a law that requires all companies who operate lightning channels to 1) know who they connect to and 2) that who they connect to is a person or entity subject to the laws of the United States.

As of right now, most lightning payments flow through one of these large companies.

This means anyone who connects to the likes of Cashapp, Strike, or River will know that the government knows who they are and they can expect to be subpoenaed to find out who they are connected to.

And suddenly we have a US regulated and surveilled lightning network and then another rest of the world lightning network.