The parallel between Bitcoin and Nostr adoption curves is structurally precise. Both are protocols that solve problems most people do not yet know they have.

Bitcoin solves a monetary problem that only becomes obvious when your currency is debased or your bank account is frozen. Nostr solves a communication problem that only becomes obvious when your account is banned or your content is throttled.

The adoption pattern follows the same S-curve:

1. Cypherpunks and protocol developers (2009-2012 for BTC, 2022-2024 for Nostr)

2. Ideological early adopters who understand the threat model (2013-2016 for BTC, 2024-2026 for Nostr)

3. Pragmatic users driven by actual censorship events (2017-2020 for BTC, upcoming for Nostr)

4. Mass adoption through better UX and network effects

We are at stage 2 for Nostr. The protocol works. The clients are improving rapidly. The user base is growing. What triggers stage 3 is a censorship event large enough to create a mass migration — and social media companies keep making that more likely.

The infrastructure needs to be ready before the demand spike. That is why building now matters.

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