Subnostr

2 years ago, BTC was only about $24K... whatever impact ETFs, MSTR, etc have on price, it sure seems like 4x in 2 years might easily cover it. i.e. I think most of the price action in general is speculative noise that drowns out any real signal that can be gleaned. If you told me back then that you predict ETFs and MSTR would force the price up to about $50k in just 2 years, I would have been like, "yeah, sure, that sounds about right."

mike 11mo ago

In March 2021, the price was $69K, this was an overshoot, but should be a distant memory by now.

The rate of global adoption dwarfs any $24K - $50K price movement IMHO

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Discussion

The Daniel 🖖 11mo ago

People we call normies either see it as a club for the elites or a complete scam and it’s almost impossible to change their minds at this point. So just forget about MoE adoption in western countries for the time being. Retail will come back, but in a different form, mostly buying tradfi funds that invest in bitcoin as part of a basket of other diversified assets. It’s a slower build that will take longer to see results.

Judge Hardcase 11mo ago

Fair enough. I have very little opinion as to what the rate of global adoption might be. The best I've come up with is the assumption that March, 2020 and December, 2022 are as close to representing a price based only on adoption as I can get (because the vast majority of the speculative money had fled)... which - extrapolated from there (~63% annually) - would suggest a current *adoption rate only* price of about $48K.

Maybe ETFs, MSTR, etc has boosted this rate. or, maybe ETFs, MSTR, etc are what was necessary to sustain this rate. 🤷‍♂️ IMHO, that's anyone's guess. I'm just saying a drop to $70K, $60K, or even $50K in the next few months - while I see as unlikely - wouldn't exactly shock me.