January retail sales fell by almost 1%. Inflation is high and the holiday hangover was real for many Americans (real physically and real financially). A couple more months like this and we’ll be looking at a full blown recession. But is it really that bad?

Yes. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income increased to 87% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the Fed’s most recent quarterly report on the subject, published earlier this week. Credit card balances are now over $1.2 trillion in the aggregate (at an average interest rate over 20%) and more Americans under the age of 40 are seeing their accounts ‘transition’ into ‘serious delinquency.’

Source: Bonner Research