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Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

The amount of FOMO that is building for #Bitcoin is insane, anything under a $1 million dollar prediction is starting to seem bearish.

I don’t know if people calling for this realize that it means S2F was right ALL ALONG. LMAO.

How the turn tables.

I don’t have expectations for #Bitcoin this cycle, I have a ~14x from halving price just for gits and shiggles…I WON’T SELL IF IM RIGHT and I won’t feel let down if I’m wrong. #BTC is the exit.

I am SUPER excited to watch it play out: seeing if SBF was able to suppress #BTC enough to throw off S2F is now on my 5th epoch bingo card.

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m2carbine 2y ago

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Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

ITS COMING 😭

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61bb909b... 2y ago

I mean, S2F was supposed to be a model that takes into account all variables so it failed. But it’s directionally right and I think it will stay that way.

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Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

Valid point, I’m just curious if SBF was able to prevent $100k, idk if I believe he had that much power to suppress, but maybe I’m underestimating.

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61bb909b... 2y ago

I think he absolutely did mess up the price (unintentionally). It caused cascading liquidations. People were leveraged and got rekt. But that’s the point. The model didn’t take into account leverage on Bitcoin and the effects. That being said, I believe in NGU and that NGU might roughly align with S2F.

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Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

Idk how I feel about the chart, this cycle will tell. The stock to flow ratio does matter, golds is 62 because it takes 62 years for the supply/stock to double making it the best store of value.

Last I checked btc’s s2f ratio was 57, VERY close to gold, but after this halving it will surpass gold and leave it in the dust, I do think this is something worth keeping in mind and I’m interested to see if we end up correcting course or if it was indeed a misinterpretation of the ratio.

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BitBees 2y ago

Please forgive me; what is S2F?

7e
nobody 2y ago

Toilet paper.

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Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

Chart? So far yes. Ratio? Is important.

Gold has a stock to flow ratio of 62, but if my math is correct btc has already surpassed gold with a ratio of 65.

Every halving will launch this number further towards infinity.

There is no second best store of value!

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BitBees 2y ago

🤣🤣🤣

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Seth Michael Steele 2y ago

Stock to flow!