The bond market used to be the smart money, and despite the fact that the era of that is long over, it still rides on that reputation.

And mainly why it is over is that it’s just too damn big. The sheer amount of supply outstanding, and the sheer amount of supply coming to market every month, means that even the smart bond trader hedge funds who can forecast and position for things aren’t big enough to move the market much. Instead the bond market is a titan that moves in real time based on flows. The bond market is a laggard now, not a forecaster.

They’re all seagulls at this point.