I honestly won't be surprised if #Bitcoin reaches 250k-500k within the first 12 months following #BTC Spot ETF approval.

#Bitcoin's Potential Valuation Based on "Global Wealth" using the "multiplier effect"

Assumptions,

1. Global wealth: $400 trillion

2. Maximum number of Bitcoins: 21 million

3. Percentage of Bitcoins lost: 12%

4. Multiplier effect: 2x (is this a lot or conservative?)

Calculations:

Available #Bitcoin,

To calculate the number of available Bitcoin, we consider the 12% loss rate.

Available Bitcoins = 21 million x 0.88 = 18.48 million Bitcoins

Captured Global Wealth,

The next step is to calculate the amount of global wealth that could potentially be captured by Bitcoin, under various scenarios.

Without Multiplier

For instance, if Bitcoin captures 5% of global wealth:

Captured Global Wealth without Multiplier = $400 trillion x 0.05 = $20 trillion

With Multiplier

The multiplier effect can then be applied to this amount:

Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier = $20 trillion x 2 = $40 trillion

Value of One #Bitcoin

The value of a single Bitcoin can be estimated using the following formula:

Value of One Bitcoin = Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier / Available Bitcoins

Therefore, with the multiplier, if #Bitcoin were to capture:

A conservative 5% of Global Wealth,

One Bitcoin would be approximately = $40 trillion / 18.48 million Bitcoins = $2,167,567

A reasonable 10% of Global Wealth

Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier = ($400 trillion x 0.10) x 2 = $80 trillion

One Bitcoin would be approximately = $80 trillion / 18.48 million Bitcoin = $4,335,135

An outrageous 20% of Global Wealth

Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier = ($400 trillion x 0.20) x 2 = $160 trillion

One Bitcoin would be approximately = $160 trillion / 18.48 million Bitcoins = $8,670,270

This is all speculative and intended solely to understand the multiplier effect.

Most importantly, what is your opinion? could we see similar numbers within a couple of decades?