BITCOIN BANK fixes this
( i’m the founder )
Discussion
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i want to talk about how we wound up where we are today, and how we get off this nightmare ride of boom-and-bust cycles
which are psychologically trashing our world and making it so hard to build enduring value
we can stop the bleeding but we must be smart
the psychology of the boom-bust innovation cycle
crypto wins by solving problems that nobody else can solve, profitably. it has to win at 3 levels to survive:
1- ordinary people have to use it
2- it has to generate actual value not just move value around
3- Govts have to tolerate it or use it themselves — either one will do
if we can’t hit all three of those criteria WANGMI
it is still Warren Buffett’s world—literally he owns it
his way of analysing the world is to look at the fundamental valuation and profitability of assets:
. he’s so good at it
. his company has roughly a 1T market cap
. the same market cap as Bitcoin had a couple of years ago
but Buffett’s company doesn’t 10x up and 4x down every couple of years: it’s plodded along fairly reliably for decades, incrementally growing value
now you’ve gotta ask yourself: “why can’t Warren Buffet see crypto?
and it’s not because he’s old or doesn’t get tech
NO. it’s because he’s smart about financial fundamentals
it’s all that boring stuff like:
* how much food will come out of the ground?
* what’s the global market for machine tools going to look like next year?
* how fast are people moving to the cities?
thinking about this stuff carefully is how you figure out when a real-world asset is under-valued
buying things which are under-valued is how Warren Buffett makes money
but Warren Buffett won’t buy bitcoin AT ANY PRICE
so we have to think about that
what do we know that Warren Buffett doesn’t?
now
let me introduce another big thinker about finance: Carlotta Perez
Perez is good at valuing bubbles
specifically she’s good at thinking about how bubbles CREATE VALUE IN THE LONG RUN EVEN THOUGH THEY ALL PASS THROUGH HORRIBLE PERIODS LIKE THIS
what Perez says is that bubbles build infrastructure
bubbles build infrastructure
a massive surge of excitement ensues, during which water flows uphill, capital flows toward the most unlikely things and the future seems so close you can touch it
buffett hates this stuff bc it involves guessing about the future
that first surge, the so-called innovation burn, slams you like the G-force on a plane’s takeoff, right in the gut. buckle up!
it’s a fundamental change in the nature of the people that run the industry: it goes from INNOVATORS to OPERATORS
risk tolerance goes way down because the technology already WORKS but it needs people who can operate it profitably
on the other hand, we have INFLATION
to inflate. the state of things being inflated
THE BUBBLES OF ALL BUBBLES
folks don’t remember inflation
if that stays up for four years, each dollar in circulation loses its value
it is devastating
in theory wages and interest rates adjust to keep up with inflation
practically speaking, without strong labor unions to negotiate, workers get poorer year after year
pair that with the global supply chain crisis, including food and you’ve got a recipe for global disaster
the middle class doesn’t just get to retreat into the virtual world
there’s nothing there that anybody wants
NO. we have to stand our ground and fight for the real world-it’s where we live
the only solution is BITCOIN
( satoshi, the founder )
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