My point is that nobody will buy shares of the ETFs, and so the ETFs won't be loading up on very much spot Bitcoin. The investment banks behind these ETFs are only talking about seeding them with a small $10 million or so.

There are two types of investors:

1. People who understand Bitcoin, and they will buy actual Bitcoin and not the ETF where they pay a fee to a fund manager.

2. People who don't understand Bitcoin, think it's too volatile, just a scam, etc., and they're not going to buy a Bitcoin ETF because they don't think it's a sound investment.

A handful of ignorant retail investors will gamble on the ETF, or options on the ETF, trying to capture the alpha, but they won't move the needle much and a lot of them will end up selling at a loss because that's what most retail traders do.