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So I started listening to this episode, but just based on the clip, there’s definitely truth to what he’s saying no doubt, but there are a few issues:

1). I don’t agree with some of his assumptions about why this all happened, he thinks America just made “mistakes”, I think they were sabotaged from within

2). There hasn’t been a true red America or free markets in the US in the past 45 years.

3). His assumptions about the near future don’t consider the transition from dollar to btc. Everyone makes it sound like “yeah it’ll just happen”. There’s a lot that can go wrong for long periods of time.

4). Sure no doubt China is a beast due to industrialization, but if there’s a bitcoin standard then the CCP doesn’t control money, and money is speech. So they will have to adjust to a new world.

5). AI is a major factor of course. My view is that controlling AI as an authoritarian govt will be difficult. There will be truth available which can hurt you in a variety of ways, sometimes unfairly.

I still need to go back and fully give it a listen, but this is what I was thinking so far.

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Discussion

ابو مريم 5mo ago

Not going to disagree on the "sabatoge". I think he's trying to avoid conspiratorial jargon and just posit a more common perseption with " mistake" though it could be a bit of both happened and he's only seeing one side. Do you think the current Red majority will successfully return to a more 80s or even 50s era conservatism or are we stuck with this right centrisism and that's the best we'll get? He's got an understanding that there's a libertainian tent (though I felt he's aligning it more within tech) and it seemed like he thinks Reds are going to lean into this more though with his prediction of a civil war I'm not sure if he thinks they will be successful or if he see exit as the better strategy. The whole timeline for mass btc addiption is hard to place into any model, like we know it's coming but the "suddenly" moment will probably still catch us all still. CCP and BRICS in general still see btc as just a tool and I do think they are more afraid of it due to the lack of control elements (also why Blues prefer ETH). The race for AI dominance is main stage atm and I wonder if there's a chance a non-party tech wing can best possition itself midst the struggle or even possibly dominate.

teepolitics 5mo ago

I don't believe it's possible to "return" to anything. This new conservatism is going to be unique, but of course with similarities with any conservative culture. It's considered traditional for a reason.

Also Balaji claims to be a libertarian, but strangely supports Hindu nationalism while not mentioning one word of jewish influence in American institutions. This is because all his friends in SV are ardent zionists. He's obviously very smart no doubt, but I also think he picks and chooses what he talks about.

Well look I actually think we can place BTC adoption within this decade. There are many reasons for it, maybe we should discuss over voice.

ابو مريم 5mo ago

Oh yeah, Balaji definitely has blindspots! Nice to see he has begun pivoting away from SV some with the move to Malaysia.

I'm bullish on the next decade for btc addoption too but also open to it taking s little longer. Won't complain if I get another cycle of cheep stacking 🤣

Anyhow, as much as I like and respect conservatism, the future is in becoming/birthing not returning/reviving. And this is what I do appreciate about Balajis' outline is that he sees the death of the nation state as we know it and is trying to project an idea of what come next with network states. My main concern is that this transition will be fought and I don't think anyone quite realizes how violent it could get.